Markham Real Estate Market Outlook: May 2025-Stability, Strategy, and Opportunity

Leveraging my deep understanding of the Greater Toronto Area real estate landscape, I’ve witnessed firsthand how economic cycles, policy shifts, and buyer sentiment shape local housing dynamics. Today, I’ll break down the critical trends shaping Markham’s real estate landscape as we head into May 2025, offering actionable insights for buyers, sellers, and investors.

Market Overview: A Balanced Foundation

Markham’s housing market enters May 2025 in a state of cautious equilibrium. While prices remain below 2024 peaks, the steep declines of late 2024 have stabilized, creating a rare window of predictability. Here’s what the data tells us:

• Average Price: $1,213,744 (March 2025), down 9.9% YoY but showing signs of flattening.
• Inventory: 3.5 months of supply, a balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers hold outsized leverage.
• Sales Activity: 220 transactions in March (+28.6% YoY), signaling renewed buyer confidence amid lower prices.

This balance is neither a buyer’s nor seller’s market, it’s a strategist’s market. Success hinges on understanding segment-specific trends and macroeconomic catalysts.

Price Forecast: Segment-Specific Opportunities

1. Detached Homes: The Resilient Performer

Detached properties remain Markham’s crown jewel, averaging 1.64 M in March 2025. Expect prices to hold near 1.6M through May due to:

• Family Demand: Millennials (now aged 30–44) prioritize suburban homes with space for hybrid work and childcare.
• Limited Supply: Only 20 days on market (DOM) vs. 24 DOM for condos.

My Advice for Sellers: Price within 2% of recent comparables. Highlight modernized kitchens/home offices to attract millennial buyers.

2. Condo Townhouses: A Buyer’s Playground

Condo townhouses (890K avg.) face headwinds from GTA−wide oversupply and investor retreat. Prices may dip below  850K, creating opportunities for:

• First-Time Buyers: Leverage softened prices and potential rate cuts.
• Landlords: Target units near transit (e.g., Unionville GO Station) for long-term rental demand.

Critical Note: Avoid units in aging buildings (15+ years) without recent maintenance—special assessments could erase short-term gains.

3. Semi-Detached/Row Houses: The Middle Ground

With moderate declines (2–4%), these segments appeal to budget-conscious buyers. Focus on neighborhoods like Cornell or Wismer, where 1.1M–1.3M buys modern finishes and access to top schools.

Sales & Inventory: Seasonal Tailwinds Meet Macro Risks

May traditionally kicks off the GTA’s spring market, but 2025’s activity will hinge on three factors:

1. Mortgage Rates: Fixed rates (4.6–5.2%) remain elevated, but June/July BoC cuts could ease pressure.
2. Federal Election (Oct 2025): Proposed capital gains tax hikes are chilling investor activity—monitor party platforms closely.
3. Construction Costs: U.S.-Canada lumber tariffs add 15K–15K–20K to new builds, slowing developer momentum.

Projected May Sales: 260–280 transactions (+15–27% MoM), driven by seasonal demand but still 18% below 2024 levels.

Regional Insights: How Markham Stacks Up

Markham’s 1.21M average price outpaces the GTA (1.09M) but trails Richmond Hill ($1.56M). Key takeaways:

• Urban vs. Suburban Shift: Toronto’s 2.2% YoY price gain reflects returning office workers, while Markham’s suburban premium relies on family demand.
• Vaughan’s Resilience: At $1.34M (-3.4% YoY), Vaughan benefits from stronger investor interest in pre-construction condos.

My Take: Markham’s premium schools (e.g., Unionville HS) and tech-sector growth (IBM, AMD) will buffer long-term declines.

Strategic Recommendations

For Buyers

• Negotiate Aggressively on Aging Listings: Use longer DOM for condo townhouses to request 2–3% price reductions or closing cost credits.
• Lock in Rates Now: With BoC cuts likely, consider convertible mortgages (fixed-to-variable options).

For Sellers

• Detached Homes: Stage with multigenerational living in mind (e.g., basement suites, dual offices).
• Condos/Attached Homes: Offer 5K–5K–10K in closing cost allowances to offset buyer rate fears.

For Investors

• Wait for Post-Election Clarity: Capital gains tax proposals could create Q3 buying opportunities.
• Target Mixed-Use Zoning: Markham Centre’s transit-oriented developments (e.g., Remington’s Master Plan) offer 5–7% rental yield potential.

The Bottom Line

Markham’s May 2025 market isn’t about chasing peaks or panicking over dips, it’s about precision. Detached homes remain a stable asset, condo corrections present entry points, and economic catalysts (rates, tariffs, elections) demand vigilance.

As always, hyperlocal expertise matters. A semi-detached home in Cathedraltown won’t behave like one in Milliken Mills. Partner with an agent who combines data fluency with neighborhood-level insights.

Stay ahead, stay informed, and let’s turn 2025’s uncertainties into opportunities.