Big City Mayors Expose Deepening Real Estate Crisis in Ontario
What Agents and Investors Need to Know for 2025 and Beyond

Ontario’s Big City Mayors (OBCM) recently convened to address critical challenges tied to tariffs, housing, and infrastructure—decisions that will shape the province’s real estate landscape for years to come. Here’s what agents, investors, and homebuyers need to know about the evolving market.

1. Infrastructure & Housing: Accelerated Development Ahead

What’s Happening:
The OBCM secured commitments to fast-track infrastructure projects, including social housing with wraparound services (healthcare, job training). Municipalities are prioritizing Canadian firms for procurement, aiming to curb rising construction costs linked to tariffs.

Real Estate Impact:

• Affordable Housing Surge: Expect increased investment in mixed-income developments, particularly near transit hubs. Cities like Markham and Burlington are poised for growth in high-density, service-integrated housing.

• Property Values: Infrastructure upgrades (roads, schools, community centers) could boost demand in underserved areas. Monitor municipal announcements for project locations.

• Construction Costs: Tariffs may inflate material prices short-term, but local procurement strategies could stabilize costs by late 2025.

Action Item: Agents should highlight upcoming infrastructure plans in listings to attract buyers eyeing long-term value.

2. Economic Pressures: Tariffs and Market Stability

What’s Happening:
U.S. tariffs threaten Ontario’s manufacturing and trade sectors, risking job losses. The OBCM is lobbying for municipal inclusion in federal/provincial stimulus packages to fund infrastructure jobs and offset economic strain.

Real Estate Impact:

• Regional Risks: Cities reliant on manufacturing (e.g., Windsor, Hamilton) may face slower demand if layoffs occur. Diversified economies (Toronto, Ottawa) will be more resilient.

• Opportunity Zones: Stimulus-funded projects could create jobs, revitalizing markets in industrial corridors.

Action Item: Investors should diversify portfolios toward regions with strong public-sector investment (e.g., Waterloo’s tech hubs).

3. Judicial Reforms: Faster Approvals, Smoother Transactions

What’s Happening:
Ontario plans to expand judicial capacity and adopt tech solutions to reduce court backlogs, addressing delays in permits and land-use disputes.

Real Estate Impact:

• Faster Development: Expedited approvals could shorten project timelines for builders, accelerating new housing supply by 2026.

• Legal Certainty: Reduced risk of project stalls due to litigation (e.g., zoning challenges).

Action Item: Developers should prepare for streamlined processes; agents might see quicker closings for pre-construction units.

4. Refugee Housing: Rental Market Implications

What’s Happening:
The OBCM successfully pushed to extend federal funding for refugee shelters (IHAP), covering 100% of municipal costs. Eligibility now includes asylum seekers preparing claims.

Real Estate Impact:

• Rental Demand: Short-term pressure on affordable rentals in cities like Toronto and Mississauga, where asylum seekers often settle.

• Investor Opportunities: Increased need for multi-unit properties and partnerships with social housing programs.

Action Item: Landlords in urban centers should stay informed about subsidy programs for participating in shelter initiatives.

5. Intergovernmental Collaboration: A Stable Path Forward

Why It Matters:
The OBCM’s collaboration with Premier Ford’s government and U.S. leaders signals policy stability. Their non-partisan stance (representing 70% of Ontario’s population) strengthens investor confidence.

Market Outlook:

• 2025–2026: Focus on infrastructure and housing launches.

• 2027+: Expect a wave of completed projects to ease supply constraints, moderating price growth in high-demand areas.

Actionable Insights for Real Estate Professionals

1. Track Infrastructure Announcements: Projects like Markham’s “Buy Canadian” strategy may signal upcoming growth corridors.

2. Educate Clients on Affordability: Highlight new social housing units and wraparound services in listings.

3. Prepare for Volatility: Monitor tariff-related material costs and interest rate impacts on mortgages.

Final Takeaway

Ontario’s real estate market is at a pivot point. While tariffs and construction costs pose short-term challenges, accelerated infrastructure, judicial efficiency, and collaborative governance will drive long-term resilience. Agents and investors should:

1. Track municipal stimulus project announcements.

2. Diversify into regions with federal/provincial funding.

3. Engage with affordable housing initiatives for growth opportunities.