Canada Has a 658,000-Home Shortage — And Markham Is at the Centre of the Solution

Even after accounting for planned immigration cuts between 2025 and 2027, Canada will still need an additional 658,000 housing units above expected new housing stock to close the housing gap by 2030, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

658,000 homes. That is not a rounding error in Canada’s housing policy — it is roughly the entire housing stock of a city the size of Calgary, and it needs to be built in the next five years while construction costs are elevated, pre-construction sales have collapsed, and developers are in retreat. Markham — with its provincially mandated target of 44,000 new homes and its position as the GTA’s most intensification-ready suburban city — is at the centre of the solution. Michael John Lau, Markham’s top REALTOR® and CPA/CMA, is breaking down what this national gap means for buyers, sellers, and investors right now.

How the 658,000 Gap Was Calculated

The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated Canada’s 2030 housing gap at 658,000 units after accounting for the government’s new immigration plan and the units expected to be built by then. Even with immigration cuts reducing the projected gap by 534,000 units from the prior 1.2 million estimate, the remaining shortfall is enormous. The gap exists because housing construction has consistently underperformed population growth for nearly a decade — the 2020 to 2022 era saw population growth accelerate while rising construction costs, permit delays, labour shortages, and elevated DCs prevented supply from keeping pace.

Why Markham Is Central to Closing the Gap

Markham’s 44,000-home target by 2031 is one of the largest assigned to any York Region municipality. The city has pledged to facilitate this through its Official Plan update, zoning amendments, and approval streamlining under Ontario’s Building Faster Fund. The development pipeline — Galaxy Towers, UnionCity, Pangea Condos, Cornell Rouge, South Cornell, Springwater, Union Village, and dozens of smaller infill and midrise projects — collectively represents a significant portion of the supply response.

What a 658,000-Home Gap Means for Markham Property Values

The relationship between housing shortage and property values is direct and well-documented. When supply is structurally insufficient relative to demand, prices rise — not because of speculation, but because of arithmetic: more people need housing than housing units exist.

The 2026 buyer’s market — 755 active listings, 33 days on market, homes selling at 97% of asking — is a temporary imbalance created by elevated rates, trade uncertainty, immigration moderation, and the wave of pre-construction completions flooding the market in 2025 and 2026. It is a correction, not a structural reversal. The structural reality — 658,000 homes short nationally, Markham’s pipeline frozen, construction starts at 30-year lows — points to a market that, once the near-term supply wave is absorbed, will face the same shortage conditions that drove prices to their 2022 peak.

The buyers who purchase in 2026 with buyer’s-market leverage and hold through 2029 and 2030, when the supply cliff materializes, are positioned to benefit from exactly the shortage the PBO quantified at 658,000 units. Michael John Lau, Markham’s top REALTOR®, helps buyers understand both the current market opportunity and the structural supply context that makes Markham’s long-term value thesis compelling.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many homes is Canada short?

The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects Canada will be 658,000 housing units short by 2030, even after accounting for immigration cuts — down from a prior estimate of 1.2 million, but still an enormous structural shortfall.

What is Markham's housing target?

Markham has a provincially mandated target of 44,000 new homes by 2031 — one of the largest assigned to any York Region municipality — supported through its Official Plan update, zoning amendments, and approval streamlining under Ontario's Building Faster Fund.

Why did no GTA condo projects launch in early 2026?

According to Urbanation, not a single new condo project launched in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area in Q1 2026 — the first time in at least 30 years — with just 246 units sold, 94% below the 10-year average, because developer economics no longer work at current costs and prices.