Canada’s Immigration Cuts Are Reshaping Markham’s Housing Demand — Here’s What It Actually Means

Immigration has been the dominant driver of Canada’s housing demand for most of the past decade. Markham — one of Canada’s most multicultural cities, with over 65% of residents identifying as a visible minority — has been more directly affected by immigration patterns than almost any other community in the country. So when Canada dramatically reversed course on immigration targets, it created a consequential shift in the demand calculus for Markham real estate.

Michael John Lau, Markham’s top REALTOR® and CPA/CMA, is giving you the full picture — including the parts that are actually good news for buyers.

What Happened to Canada’s Immigration Targets

Canada reduced the number of new permanent residents from 500,000 to 395,000 in 2025, with further reductions to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027 — a 21% cut from the previously planned trajectory. For the first time ever, the government also released targets for non-permanent residents (international students and temporary foreign workers), aiming to reduce them to 5% of Canada’s total population by the end of 2026. If the population evolves as projected, Canada will experience its first annual decline in population — a 0.2% decline in both 2025 and 2026. Prime Minister Mark Carney has expressed support for bringing overall immigration down to “sustainable levels.”

What the Cuts Are Actually Doing to Markham’s Market

The short-term impact has been felt most acutely in the rental market. A TD Economics report found the immigration slowdown has reduced demand for purpose-built rentals and condominiums, with asking rents dropping fastest in British Columbia and Ontario. Under a “what-if” scenario of sustained high immigration, rent hikes would have averaged 5.5% from 2025 to 2027 — two full percentage points steeper than the actual projected outcome.

For Markham specifically, where rents peaked at the highest level in the GTA in mid-2025 at $2,287 per month for a one-bedroom, the demand moderation has reduced upward pressure on rents — relief for renters, but a genuine headwind for condo investors who bought based on peak rental projections. BMO’s Robert Kavcic projected Canada would go from almost 3.5% population growth to effectively zero over two years, with wide-ranging impacts on rent, housing inflation, and consumer spending.

The Part That Does Not Change — Markham’s Permanent Demand Base

Here is what immigration-cut coverage consistently underemphasizes: the permanent residents who have already arrived in Markham are not leaving. The 40,000 to 50,000 new permanent residents who chose Markham over the past five years are building lives, careers, and families here — and many are converting rental tenancies into home purchases as they achieve employment stability and build down payments. This conversion demand is a meaningful, ongoing driver entirely independent of new immigration flows.

Markham’s Chinese-Canadian, South Asian, Filipino, and Korean communities have established multi-generational roots over decades. The cultural infrastructure — temples, community centres, festivals, compatible schools — continues to attract newcomers within the reduced envelope; it simply does so from a smaller incoming pool.

The Long-Term Outlook — Why Markham’s Fundamentals Remain Intact

Even accounting for the cuts, Canada will still need an additional 658,000 housing units above expected new stock to close the housing gap by 2030, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer. The shortage does not disappear because immigration was cut 21% — it shrinks from catastrophic to very large. And 365,000 to 395,000 permanent residents per year remains a historically high level that continues to generate new household formation.

For Markham buyers in 2026, the moderation has produced a genuine window: less rental competition, softer condo prices, and a buyer’s market that would not exist under the prior trajectory. This window is finite. As immigration adjusts upward from 2027 and the supply cliff of 2028 to 2030 materializes, the demand-supply balance will tighten again. Michael John Lau, Markham’s top REALTOR®, helps buyers understand both the near-term moderation and the long-term structural demand that characterizes Markham’s real estate market.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did Canada cut immigration?

Canada reduced permanent resident targets from 500,000 to 395,000 in 2025, then to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027 — a 21% cut. It also capped non-permanent residents for the first time, aiming for 5% of the population by the end of 2026.

How are immigration cuts affecting Markham rents?

They've reduced upward pressure on rents. Markham one-bedroom rents peaked at $2,287/month in mid-2025; demand moderation has softened them since — relief for renters but a headwind for condo investors who underwrote at peak rents.

Do immigration cuts mean Markham home prices will fall long-term?

Not structurally. Even after the cuts, the Parliamentary Budget Officer projects Canada will still be 658,000 homes short by 2030, and 365k–395k PRs per year remains historically high — so the 2026 buyer's window is finite, not a lasting reversal.