Blog > What does Toronto's population growth mean for Markham real estate?
What does Toronto's population growth mean for Markham real estate?
The story changed. For a decade, Markham real estate content assumed Toronto's growth would spill outward and lift York Region prices automatically. In the year to July 1, 2025, the Toronto census metropolitan area recorded a population change of negative 992 people, essentially flat, down from 3.9 percent growth the year before. Markham's mid year 2025 population of 362,294 runs roughly 36,000 below its own Official Plan projection. The long term forecast still points up, with the York Region Official Plan projecting 619,200 Markham residents by 2051. But the near term driver of Markham home values is no longer population growth. It is supply, employment and interest rates.
What Actually Happened to Toronto's Population
Statistics Canada published the figures in January 2026, and they deserve to be read closely rather than summarized loosely.
In the year to July 1, 2025, the Toronto census metropolitan area lost 992 people on net. The components tell the story:
- Births added 63,778
- Immigration added 115,348
- Deaths subtracted 40,675
- Net non permanent residents subtracted 44,792
- Net emigration subtracted 17,159
- Net internal out migration subtracted the remainder
Across all 41 Canadian census metropolitan areas, population grew 1.0 percent, down from 3.5 percent the prior year. Toronto underperformed even that slowdown.
A second figure matters just as much. The Toronto CMA's share of Ontario's immigrants fell from 76.1 percent in 2019 and 2020 to 60.5 percent in 2024 and 2025. Newcomers are still arriving in Ontario. They are increasingly choosing Ottawa, Hamilton, Kitchener Waterloo, London and Windsor instead of the Toronto region.
Why the Old Spillover Story No Longer Explains Markham
The spillover thesis was simple and, for years, accurate. Toronto grew faster than it could build. Buyers priced out of Toronto moved north into York Region. Markham absorbed them and prices rose.
Three things broke that chain.
The source of the spillover slowed
A region with flat population growth is not pushing buyers outward at the rate it was in 2021 through 2023.
Federal immigration targets were reduced
Canada admitted roughly 483,000 permanent residents in 2024. The current Immigration Levels Plan holds at 380,000 per year for 2026, 2027 and 2028, a reduction of about 21 percent. New temporary resident arrivals are set at 385,000 in 2026, falling to 370,000 in 2027 and 2028, with a federal goal of bringing the temporary population under 5 percent of Canada's total by the end of 2027.
Markham is behind its own growth plan
Markham's mid year 2025 population was 362,294. The 2014 Official Plan projected 398,300 by 2026. The city is running roughly 36,000 people behind its own curve. Ontario's own projections reinforce the direction: the Greater Toronto Area adds the largest absolute number of people to 2051, roughly 1.3 million, but its share of Ontario's population falls from 47.2 percent to 44.2 percent.
Michael John Lau, a REALTOR® serving home buyers and home sellers in Markham, Ontario, thinks this deserves plain language rather than spin. Growth has not stopped. It has slowed, and it has dispersed. Anyone selling a Markham home on the strength of runaway regional growth is selling a story the current data does not support.
What Still Points Up for Markham
None of this makes Markham a weak market. The long term case is intact and it rests on things other than raw population inflow.
The 2051 forecast is substantial
The York Region Official Plan forecasts Markham at 619,200 residents and 309,200 jobs by 2051. From 2016, that is an increase of roughly 280,100 people, 127,200 jobs and 97,000 housing units. Just over half of that growth is planned through intensification in Markham Centre, Langstaff Gateway and similar nodes, with roughly 1,500 hectares of north Markham lands designated for the remainder.
Markham is an employment centre, not a bedroom community
This is the most underrated fact about Markham real estate. The city hosts roughly 10,400 companies, including 400 or more Canadian head offices. More than 1,000 technology and life sciences companies employ approximately 37,000 people, more than one fifth of Markham's 167,500 person workforce. A 2024 employment survey counted 184,645 employees across 9,899 businesses, with professional, scientific and technical services the largest sector at 31,290 employees.
York Region forecasts that Markham's share of trips to Toronto in the morning peak will fall from 30 percent in 2016 to 26 percent by 2051, as more residents work locally. Markham increasingly generates its own demand.
York University Markham Campus
The campus at 1 University Boulevard in Downtown Markham opened in spring 2024 with capacity for 4,200 students, reaching roughly 1,000 enrolled at its first anniversary. Ten floors of teaching space focused on technology and entrepreneurship anchor the Markham Centre district.
Markham still captures its share of newcomers
Just over 40 percent of all recent immigrants to York Region settle in Markham, and 88 percent concentrate in Markham, Richmond Hill and Vaughan. Immigrants make up 58 percent of Markham's population. When someone chooses York Region, they choose Markham more often than anywhere else.
The Supply Story Is Now the Main Story
If population growth is no longer the driver, supply is. And Markham's supply picture is unusual.
Markham signed a Municipal Housing Pledge in March 2023 committing to 44,000 new homes by 2031. In 2024, the city permitted a record 4,216 residential units, exceeding its target. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation recognized only 1,825 housing starts, and Markham did not qualify for Building Faster Fund money because that program measures starts rather than permits.
The pipeline behind those numbers is enormous:
| Intensification area | Planned units | Units in active applications |
|---|---|---|
| Markham Centre | 56,500 | 35,487 |
| Langstaff Gateway | 29,773 | 10,415 |
| Milliken Centre | 8,000 | Secondary plan in progress |
| Cornell Centre | Secondary plan study underway | 7,072 |
That is more than 94,000 planned units across four nodes, well over double the 44,000 provincial target. Markham's 2024 intensification rate reached 87 percent, the highest on record against a 60 percent target, and roughly 93 percent of the 1,955 units completed in 2024 were higher density.
The constraint is not approvals. It is construction. A Markham planning director summarized it directly: many thousands of units have been approved, but very few are under construction.
What This Means for Markham Buyers and Sellers
For buyers
- Waiting for a demand surge is a weak strategy. The population driven surge is not currently in the data.
- Detached and townhome supply stays constrained. Markham's growth plan is over 90 percent intensification, which means new supply is overwhelmingly higher density. Ground level family housing in established Markham communities is not being meaningfully added.
- Condominium apartment buyers have leverage right now. Greater Toronto Area condominium apartment prices fell 7.5 percent year over year in the second quarter of 2026, and Markham condominiums sold at 96 percent of list price after 43 days.
- Approved is not built. A pre construction unit approved today may be years from occupancy.
For sellers
- Price against current sold evidence. In August 2026, Markham's average sale price rose 6.4 percent year over year while the median rose 0.09 percent. That gap reflects a shift in what sold, not broad appreciation.
- Ground level homes still hold a structural advantage because Markham's new supply is not replacing them.
- Markham remains the tightest major York Region market. Active listings fell 10.7 percent year over year in August 2026 while sales rose 17.5 percent, and homes sold at 98 percent of list price after 33 days.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Toronto's population still growing?
Barely. The Toronto census metropolitan area recorded a change of negative 992 people in the year to July 1, 2025, essentially flat, after 3.9 percent growth the prior year. Toronto crossed 7 million residents in early 2025.
What will Markham's population be in 2051?
The York Region Official Plan forecasts approximately 619,200 residents and 309,200 jobs in Markham by 2051, an increase of roughly 280,100 people and 97,000 housing units from 2016.
Is Markham still a good place to invest in real estate?
Markham has genuine long term fundamentals, including a large employment base, constrained ground level supply and continued newcomer settlement. It also faces slower near term population growth and a soft condominium segment. No one can guarantee investment performance, and any purchase should be evaluated against a specific holding period, financing plan and risk tolerance.
How many new homes is Markham required to build?
Markham committed to 44,000 new homes by 2031 under a Municipal Housing Pledge signed in March 2023. More than 94,000 units are planned across four intensification areas, but only 1,825 housing starts were recognized in 2024.
Will Markham home prices go up because of population growth?
Not automatically, and not in the near term. Markham is running roughly 36,000 people behind its own Official Plan projection and Toronto region growth has stalled. Current price movement is being driven more by inventory levels, home type and interest rates than by population inflow.
Plan your next Markham move with clear eyes
Michael John Lau works from current data rather than from familiar assumptions, so clients understand what is actually moving the market before they buy or sell.
Disclaimer. Michael John Lau is a licensed REALTOR® serving buyers and sellers in Markham, Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area. Population, immigration, planning and market figures are drawn from Statistics Canada, Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada, the Province of Ontario, York Region, the City of Markham and Toronto Regional Real Estate Board sources current to 2026, and are approximate. This article is general information and is not investment advice.