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CMHC's 2027 Forecast — What the New Numbers Mean for Markham Buyers Still Waiting
Every Markham buyer on the sidelines is asking the same question: is waiting the smart move, or am I about to miss the bottom? CMHC's latest forecast gives the most authoritative answer available — and it deserves a careful read.
What does CMHC's latest forecast mean for Markham buyers who are waiting? CMHC's 2026 Housing Market Outlook expects the GTA market to stay soft through 2026, then recover in 2027 and 2028 — with rising demand, falling inventory, and returning price growth led by the GTA. For buyers waiting, it points to a closing window of maximum choice and negotiating power before conditions tighten.
Every Markham buyer sitting on the sidelines is asking the same question: is waiting the smart move, or am I about to miss the bottom? CMHC's latest forecast gives the most authoritative answer available — and it deserves a careful read. Michael John Lau, a top real estate agent in Markham, breaks down what the national housing agency is actually projecting.
What CMHC Is Forecasting
In its 2026 Housing Market Outlook, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) projects that Canada's housing market will remain soft through the remainder of 2026 — slower sales, modest price declines, and reduced construction — before conditions gradually improve in 2027 and 2028. You can read the outlook directly at CMHC's website.
The recovery is expected to be led by the Greater Toronto Area. CMHC's figures project GTA home sales rising from roughly 63,000 in 2026 to between 69,500 and 71,500 in 2027, and higher again — between 75,200 and 77,000 — in 2028. Critically, CMHC expects increasing housing demand to drive price growth in both 2027 and 2028, led by lower inventory and stronger demand in the GTA, with fewer new completions reducing the flow of new supply.
Reading Between the Lines for Markham
Markham sits at the heart of the GTA market CMHC is describing, so the forecast maps directly onto local conditions. Here is what the projection implies for a Markham buyer who is currently waiting.
2026 is the window of maximum choice
CMHC expects 2026 to feature soft sales, elevated inventory, and modest price softness. For buyers, that is the definition of leverage: abundant listings, less competition, and room to negotiate. The current Markham market reflects exactly this — the average home is selling around 98.9% of asking after roughly 32 days, with elevated inventory across property types.
The window is projected to close in 2027
If CMHC is right, the combination of recovering demand and shrinking supply begins pushing prices up in 2027 and further in 2028. A buyer waiting for a lower price may find that by the time confidence returns, so does competition — and the negotiating leverage available in 2026 fades.
Lower supply is the key mechanism
The most important part of the forecast is the supply side. Weak pre-construction sales and falling completions mean fewer new homes reaching the market in the years ahead. Less new supply, meeting recovering demand, is what CMHC expects to drive prices — and it is the factor most easily overlooked by buyers focused only on interest rates.
What This Means If You Are Waiting
The instinct to wait for a lower price is understandable, but CMHC's forecast reframes the decision. The question is not simply "will prices fall further in 2026?" — they might, modestly. The more important question is "what happens when I actually try to buy?" A buyer who purchases in the soft 2026 market buys with choice and leverage. A buyer who waits for the 2027 recovery to feel safe may buy into rising prices and renewed competition — the exact conditions that make buying harder.
None of this is a guarantee. Forecasts are projections, not certainties, and rates, policy, and the economy can all shift. But CMHC's outlook is the most authoritative signal available, and it points to a specific window. Michael John Lau, one of Markham's leading REALTORS® and a CPA/CMA, helps buyers read the market and their own circumstances clearly — so the decision to buy or wait is made on evidence, not fear. Understanding what CMHC is projecting is the first step to timing your purchase wisely.
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Buy on Evidence, Not Fear
Michael John Lau, REALTOR® CPA, CMA, helps Markham buyers read the market and their own numbers clearly — so buying or waiting is a decision made on data. Let's talk through your situation.
Michael John Lau is a licensed REALTOR® and CPA/CMA at Kaizen Real Estate (eXp Realty), Licence #4784577, serving Markham and York Region. Market forecasts are projections by CMHC and are not guarantees; actual outcomes depend on interest rates, policy, and economic conditions. This is general information, not financial advice. Figures sourced from CMHC's 2026 Housing Market Outlook. Not intended to solicit clients currently under contract with another brokerage.
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