Blog > How is immigration affecting housing demand in Markham, Ontario?
How is immigration affecting housing demand in Markham, Ontario?
Immigration built modern Markham. Immigrants make up 58 percent of the city's population, and just over 40 percent of all recent immigrants to York Region settle in Markham. But the trend changed in 2025 and 2026. Canada's permanent resident target has been reduced to 380,000 per year through 2028, temporary resident arrivals have been cut, and the Toronto census metropolitan area recorded essentially flat population growth in the year to July 1, 2025. For Markham home buyers and sellers, this means demand is still real and still concentrated, but the assumption of automatic population driven price growth no longer holds.
How Immigration Shaped Markham
Markham is one of the most internationally rooted municipalities in Canada, and the numbers are not close.
- 58 percent of Markham residents are immigrants, among the highest shares of any large Canadian municipality
- 82.1 percent identify as a visible minority
- Top places of birth among Markham's immigrant population: China at 33.8 percent, India at 7.2 percent, Sri Lanka at 6.4 percent
- Mother tongue: English 34.8 percent, Cantonese 22.2 percent, Mandarin 12.7 percent, Tamil 4.5 percent
- 48.7 percent of Markham residents aged 25 to 64 hold a bachelor's degree or higher, well above the provincial and national averages
- Approximately 19,000 immigrants settled in Markham between 2016 and 2021, and 58 percent of permanent residents in 2021 arrived through the economic class
That last point drives housing demand more than any other. Economic class immigrants arrive with credentials, employment and, frequently, capital. They are not a future buyer pool. They are a present one.
York Region data shows just over 40 percent of all recent immigrants to the region settle in Markham, and 88 percent concentrate in Markham, Richmond Hill and Vaughan combined. Markham is the region's single largest landing point.
What Changed in 2025 and 2026
This is the part most Markham real estate content has not caught up to, and buyers and sellers deserve the accurate version.
Permanent resident targets were reduced
Canada admitted a record of roughly 483,000 permanent residents in 2024. The current Immigration Levels Plan sets a flat target of 380,000 permanent residents per year for 2026, 2027 and 2028. That is a reduction of roughly 21 percent from the peak.
Within that target, the economic class share rises to approximately 64 percent by 2027 and 2028, at 239,800 to 244,700 admissions per year. Family class runs 81,000 to 84,000, and refugees and protected persons 49,300.
Temporary resident arrivals were cut harder
New temporary resident arrivals are set at 385,000 for 2026, comprising 230,000 workers and 155,000 students, falling to 370,000 in 2027 and 2028. The stated federal goal is to reduce Canada's temporary population to under 5 percent of the total population by the end of 2027.
Temporary residents rent far more often than they buy. The reduction affects the Markham rental market and the investor condominium segment more directly than the detached market.
Toronto's population growth stalled
This is the most consequential finding. In the year to July 1, 2025, the Toronto census metropolitan area recorded a population change of negative 992 people, essentially flat, down from 3.9 percent growth the prior year. Immigration added 115,348 people to the Toronto CMA, but that was offset by a decline of 44,792 in net non permanent residents, net emigration of 17,159, and net internal out migration.
Just as significant, the Toronto CMA's share of Ontario's immigrants fell from 76.1 percent in 2019 and 2020 to 60.5 percent in 2024 and 2025. Newcomers are increasingly choosing secondary Canadian cities.
What This Means for Markham Housing Demand
Demand is still concentrated, and Markham still wins its share
Markham's advantages have not changed. Established Chinese, South Asian and Sri Lankan communities, strong schools, over 10,400 companies including 400 or more Canadian head offices, more than 1,000 technology and life sciences companies employing roughly 37,000 people, and the York University Markham Campus which opened in 2024. A newcomer choosing the Greater Toronto Area still has strong reasons to choose Markham specifically.
The growth assumption needs to be retired
Markham's mid year 2025 population was 362,294. The city's 2014 Official Plan projected 398,300 for 2026. Markham is running roughly 36,000 people behind its own growth curve.
Michael John Lau, a REALTOR® serving home buyers and home sellers in Markham, Ontario, treats this as important context rather than as bad news. A seller who prices on the assumption that population growth will absorb an ambitious number is pricing on a trend that has paused. A buyer who has been waiting for a demand surge to justify acting is waiting for something the current data does not support.
The composition of demand is shifting
With economic class immigration rising as a share of a smaller total, and temporary residents falling, Markham's demand profile tilts toward buyers rather than renters. Practically, that supports the detached and townhome segments more than the investor driven condominium apartment segment, which is where Greater Toronto Area prices fell 7.5 percent year over year in the second quarter of 2026.
Multi-generational demand remains structural
Family class immigration of 81,000 to 84,000 per year, combined with Markham's household patterns, keeps demand steady for homes with main floor bedrooms, separate entrances and walk out basements. Under provincial legislation, urban residential lots in Markham are permitted up to three units, though any two unit house must be registered with the City of Markham and inspected.
The Supply Side of the Equation
Markham signed a Municipal Housing Pledge in March 2023 committing to 44,000 new homes by 2031. Progress has been uneven, and the reason matters.
In 2024, Markham permitted a record 4,216 residential units, exceeding its target. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation recognized only 1,825 housing starts. Markham did not qualify for Building Faster Fund money because that program measures starts, not permits.
Meanwhile the pipeline is enormous. Markham Centre alone has a recommended development concept plan for 56,500 units, with 35,487 in active applications. Langstaff Gateway is planned for 29,773 units, Milliken Centre for 8,000, and Cornell Centre has 7,072 units in active applications. Across those four nodes, more than 94,000 units are planned, more than double the 44,000 target.
The constraint in Markham is not approvals. It is construction velocity. A planning director summarized it directly: many thousands of units have been approved, but very few are under construction.
For a home buyer, that has a practical implication. Approved does not mean built, and a pre construction unit approved today may be years from occupancy.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is immigration still driving Markham home prices in 2026?
Immigration remains a real source of demand, with Markham receiving just over 40 percent of York Region's recent immigrants. But Canada's permanent resident target has been reduced to 380,000 per year and the Toronto census metropolitan area recorded flat population growth in the year to July 2025, so immigration is no longer the accelerating force it was between 2021 and 2024.
What percentage of Markham residents are immigrants?
Immigrants make up 58 percent of Markham's population according to the 2021 Census, and 82.1 percent of residents identify as a visible minority.
Will Markham home prices keep rising?
No one can responsibly guarantee a direction. What the current data shows is that Markham's average price rose 6.4 percent year over year in August 2026 while its median was essentially flat, inventory fell 10.7 percent, and the condominium segment declined. Those signals point to a market that is segment specific rather than uniformly rising or falling.
How many people will live in Markham by 2051?
The York Region Official Plan forecasts approximately 619,200 residents and 309,200 jobs in Markham by 2051, an increase of roughly 280,100 people and 97,000 housing units from 2016.
Does immigration affect Markham condos or houses more?
Historically, temporary residents supported the rental and condominium apartment market while economic class permanent residents supported ownership. With temporary arrivals reduced and economic class permanent residents rising as a share, the current mix supports the ownership market more than the rental driven condominium segment.
Make your Markham decision on current data
Michael John Lau works from what the market is doing now rather than from familiar assumptions, so clients buy and sell with a clear picture.
Disclaimer. Michael John Lau is a licensed REALTOR® serving buyers and sellers in Markham, Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area. Population, immigration and market figures are drawn from Statistics Canada, Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada, York Region, the City of Markham and Toronto Regional Real Estate Board sources current to 2026, and are approximate. This article is general information and is not investment advice.