Markham’s Rental Prices Are Down 11% Year-Over-Year — What It Actually Means

The rental market correction in Markham is real, measurable, and underreported. Rent prices in Markham have decreased by approximately 11% to 12% in the last year. As of April 2026, the median rent for all bedroom counts and property types in Markham is $2,200 — still 13%, or $251, higher than the national average.

An 11% year-over-year decline in Markham rental prices is not a collapse — it is a correction from genuinely unsustainable heights. Understanding the distinction matters enormously for investors, renters, and buyers evaluating properties with rental income components. Michael John Lau, Markham's top REALTOR® and CPA/CMA, breaks down what the data actually means and what the right response is for each stakeholder.

Context: Where Markham Rents Were and What Drove Them There

As of July 2025, average rent for a one-bedroom unfurnished unit in Markham at $2,287 surpassed that of Downtown Toronto ($2,127) — making Markham the most expensive municipality to rent in the entire GTA. At those levels, Markham rents were simply unsustainable for the tenant income levels that most workers in the city could support. The peak was driven by three converging forces: record immigration flooding demand for every housing type simultaneously; pandemic-era construction suppression leaving supply severely lagged; and rate increases of 2022–2024 pushing marginal homebuyers back into the rental market.

What Is Driving the Correction

Immigration moderation. Canada’s reduction in immigration targets — from 500,000 to 395,000 permanent residents per year, with larger cuts to non-permanent residents — has meaningfully reduced the flow of new renters. International students and temporary foreign workers, who drove outsized rental demand in 2023 and 2024, are arriving in materially smaller numbers.

Record new supply. The wave of pre-construction condos purchased in 2021 and 2022 are completing in 2025 and 2026 — adding thousands of new rental units simultaneously. Investors who purchased these units for rental income are now competing for tenants in a market with far more supply than existed when they made their purchase decisions.

Economic uncertainty. Bank of Canada holds at 2.25%, US tariff pressure on Ontario’s economy, and GDP contraction in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 have created caution among potential renters about committing to premium rental rates. Some tenants are choosing to double up, move to more affordable communities, or return to family homes rather than pay peak Markham rents.

What This Means for Markham Condo Investors

Markham investors who purchased pre-construction condos in 2021–2022 at pricing that assumed peak rental income need to recalibrate. The investor who underwrote a $900,000 Gallery Towers unit based on $2,800/month rent is now looking at a $2,200 to $2,400 reality — a monthly income shortfall of $400 to $600, or $4,800 to $7,200 below the original annual projection.

This does not make the investment a failure — it makes it a lower-yield investment than originally projected. The ten-year capital appreciation thesis for well-located Markham condos near York University and the IndyCar circuit remains intact. But investors who built their cashflow model to depend on 2024 peak rents need to either accept lower near-term yield or optimize through mid-term furnished rentals achieving $3,200 to $4,000/month legally by setting a 30-night minimum stay.

What This Means for Markham Renters

For Markham renters who have been stretched at peak levels, the correction is tangibly meaningful. A one-bedroom unit that rented for $2,400 at the peak in Downtown Markham or Unionville may now be achievable at $2,100 to $2,150 — a $250 to $300/month improvement, or $3,000 to $3,600 per year. Renters considering converting to ownership in 2026 have a particularly interesting set of conditions: rental prices are down 11%, ownership prices are down 10% from their peak, fixed mortgage rates are in the 4.3% to 4.8% range, and the first-time buyer financial program stack (FHSA + HBP + LTT rebate + HST rebate) is at its most generous in Canadian history.

Michael John Lau, Markham's top REALTOR®, helps both investors recalibrating their rental strategy and renters evaluating the transition to ownership with current, data-grounded analysis.